{"id":72154,"date":"2026-03-18T12:27:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T11:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.i4ce.org\/?p=72154"},"modified":"2026-03-25T19:26:01","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T18:26:01","slug":"reinforcing-europe-carbon-sink-actionable-levers-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.i4ce.org\/en\/reinforcing-europe-carbon-sink-actionable-levers-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Reinforcing Europe\u2019s carbon sink through actionable levers"},"content":{"rendered":"

How can Europe\u00a0continue the path\u00a0towards climate neutrality by 2050? This is the issue that the\u00a0European agreement setting an intermediary climate target for 2040<\/a>\u00a0aims to clarify. On\u00a05\u00a0March\u00a02026, European ministers endorsed the\u00a0revision of the European Climate Law and its target of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040<\/a>. Achieving this net target depends not only on the rapid\u00a0decarbonisation\u00a0of emitting sectors but also on the level of carbon sinks \u2013 that is, the capacity of our forests,\u00a0soils\u00a0and agricultural land to capture carbon. However, over the past 10 years, the forest carbon sink has been declining\u00a0unpredictably. Whilst the implementation of the agreement involves the revision of several key regulations (LULUCF, ESR), excessive optimism\u00a0regarding\u00a0the forest carbon sink threatens the achievement of these targets. Europe\u2019s path to climate neutrality\u00a0must better\u00a0anticipate\u00a0a\u00a0likely more\u00a0modest contribution from the forest carbon sink and step up efforts on\u00a0other\u00a0levers we\u00a0can\u00a0\u00a0influence.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

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The EU\u2019s assumptions\u00a0regarding\u00a0the capacity of ecosystems to sequester greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be treated with caution<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

By 2040, the\u00a0majority\u00a0of Europe\u2019s GHG emissions sequestration is expected to come from the land sector, or the\u00a0<\/span>LULUCF sector<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(land use, land-use change and\u00a0forestry).\u00a0According to the European Commission\u2019s\u00a0<\/span>impact assessment<\/span><\/a>, the level of sequestration in ecosystems is projected to reach -317 MtCO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0in 2040.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However,\u00a0recent trends\u00a0in the carbon sink should prompt Member States to be cautious about the level of carbon sequestration that can realistically be expected. Between 2014 and 2023,\u00a0<\/span>the EU\u2019s average annual net carbon sink decreased by 30%<\/span><\/a>, standing at -198 MtCO<\/span>2<\/span>.\u00a0In light of\u00a0this, the\u00a0<\/span>European Environment Agency<\/span><\/a>\u00a0therefore\u00a0<\/span>considers it unlikely<\/span><\/b>\u00a0that the target set by the\u00a0<\/span>EU LULUCF Regulation<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(which defines emissions targets for the land sector) of -310\u00a0MtCO\u2082 sequestered in ecosystems by 2030 will be met. Furthermore, the growing impacts of climate change make the future of the natural carbon sink particularly uncertain: projections estimate that European ecosystems could sequester between\u00a0<\/span>-100 and -350 Mt CO\u2082 eq<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by 2050.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The decline in the carbon sink is driven by the decline in the forest carbon sink<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Forests are the main carbon sink in Europe.\u00a0Between 1990 and 2022,\u00a0<\/span>European forests absorbed nearly 10% of the EU\u2019s GHG emissions.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But over the last 10 years, this trend has been disrupted. Despite an increase in forest cover, the\u00a0forest\u00a0carbon sink is\u00a0shrinking:\u00a0forests continue to store carbon, but at a slower rate than before. Over the course of a decade, the\u00a0<\/span>forest carbon sink has thus fallen by\u00a0nearly a\u00a0third<\/span><\/b>,\u00a0<\/span>from -456.9 MtCO2eq\/year over the 2010\u20132014 period to -332.6\u00a0MtCO2eq\/year between 2020 and 2022<\/span><\/a>. This trend is\u00a0evident\u00a0across all European regions to varying degrees. In France, the\u00a0<\/span>forest carbon sink has been divided by two.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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This trend can be attributed to several interrelated factors, the exact extent of which has yet to be\u00a0determined:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n