{"id":73501,"date":"2026-09-04T09:37:22","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.i4ce.org\/?p=73501"},"modified":"2026-09-04T10:46:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T08:46:08","slug":"groundhog-day-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.i4ce.org\/en\/groundhog-day-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Groundhog Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Who could have predicted\u00a0we&#8217;d\u00a0endure an &#8220;unprecedented&#8221; summer in 2026, climate-wise? Unprecedented, like\u00a0a\u00a0scene\u00a0of a good\u00a0movie.\u00a0For Beno\u00eet Leguet, avoiding endless reruns of the same\u00a0story\u2014 and their costs \u2014 means finding ways to factor future climates into our economic decisions. A topic for\u00a0budget debates\u00a0in France at\u00a0at\u00a0the\u00a0EU\u00a0level.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">As the threat of another\u00a0immediate\u00a0heatwave in\u00a0Europe\u00a0recedes, we can hope to see the end of\u00a0this movie.\u00a0A\u00a0movie\u00a0with a rich\u00a0script,\u00a0but\u00a0not a pleasant one: overheated schools, hospitals under strain, unlivable city centers, canceled trains, parched harvests, nuclear plants running at reduced capacity, critical water levels, and unprecedented wildfires.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 24px;\"><b>Coming up next: the cost of summer 2026<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">All of this has direct and indirect impacts on every sector\u00a0across European\u00a0countries. No one can say they went untouched this summer, whether professionally or personally. The theoretical warning has been proven by experience: our economy\u00a0isn&#8217;t\u00a0adapted to today&#8217;s climate \u2014 let alone\u00a0tomorrow&#8217;s, as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and emitting greenhouse gases.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The bill will fill several more\u00a0scenes\u00a0of\u00a0the\u00a0movie.\u00a0First, the tally of direct summer losses: hectares of burned forest, canceled vacations, the\u00a0deficit deepened by emergency aid. Then the delayed effects: impacts on the health of exposed populations; on our\u00a0food systems; on homes, as rehydrating clay soils cause cracks to appear; and even on autumn weather, with an increased flood risk from a warmer sea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 24px;\"><b>Let&#8217;s\u00a0skip the reruns<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We already have everything needed on the technical, administrative, and scientific fronts to avoid being condemned\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">to\u00a0live\u00a0the same\u00a0scene\u00a0again and\u00a0again\u00a0every\u00a0summer.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">So\u00a0let&#8217;s\u00a0not waste a good crisis. This\u00a0summer&#8217;s\u00a0sequence should lead to a\u00a0debrief:\u00a0what held up, what had to be adjusted, what failed \u2014 to understand which actions and decisions were effective, and which\u00a0shouldn&#8217;t\u00a0be repeated. In a few years, summer 2026 may look like the norm, but improvised, last-minute fixes \u2014 as has too often been the case \u2014\u00a0won&#8217;t\u00a0cut it anymore. After\u00a0the\u00a02003\u00a0heatwave in\u00a0France,\u00a0crisis management improved considerably. After 2026, we need to go further on anticipation \u2014 and even\u00a0if we\u00a0can&#8217;t\u00a0adapt to everything, go further on structural transformation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Does the word &#8220;transformation&#8221; sound scary,\u00a0evoking the &#8220;investment wall&#8221; described by Monique\u00a0Barbut, the French Minister of\u00a0Environment? The size of that wall depends first on what we want to protect &#8220;at all costs&#8221; and what we\u00a0are willing to give up. It also depends on which adaptation options we choose: some responses might require little investment \u2014 shifting working hours during heatwaves, say, rather than fully overhauling buildings. And finally, it depends on sequencing: the goal\u00a0isn&#8217;t\u00a0to adapt everything within five years, but to systematically factor future climate into every investment, so\u00a0that\u00a0our economies gradually become more resilient.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Seen this way, adaptation\u00a0isn&#8217;t\u00a0an added expense \u2014\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0the\u00a0plot\u00a0for well-designed economic policy on land use planning, housing, and economic development, one that spares us considerable risk and expense down the line.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 24px;\"><b>Bring on the next\u00a0saga<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">After\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">the<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">\u00a0summer 2026 that left millions of people in\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">Europe\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">affected,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">failing to offer<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">\u00a0a credible response on climate adaptation could well cost\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentStart CommentHighlightPipeRest CommentHighlightRest SCXW211293535 BCX0\">elections<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun CommentHighlightPipeRest SCXW211293535 BCX0\">.\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">It&#8217;s<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\">\u00a0up to political leaders to design and implement such a response \u2014 credible,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW211293535 BCX0\">including on<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW211293535 BCX0\"> financing.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Who could have predicted we&#8217;d endure an &#8220;unprecedented&#8221; summer in 2026, climate-wise? Unprecedented, like a chapter\u00a0\u00a0of a good TV series. For Beno\u00eet Leguet, avoiding endless reruns of the same story\u2014 and their costs \u2014 means finding ways to factor future climates into our economic decisions. A topic for the EU&#8217;s budget debate. \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":70853,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog-post"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Groundhog Day - I4CE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Who could have predicted we&#039;d endure an &quot;unprecedented&quot; summer in 2026, climate-wise? 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