Understanding the link between macroeconomic environment and the EU carbon price

18 February 2012 - Carbon Trends

By Julien Chevallier

The reaction of the carbon price to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals can be understood from different levels. My recent academic research has identified two strong linkages.
First, there is a link between the EU carbon price and financial markets, such as equity and bond markets. These analyses emphasize how the volatility of the carbon price is affected when financial markets enter “bull” or “bear” periods. By estimating various volatility models, carbon futures prices may be weakly forecasted on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e equity dividend yields (returns on stocks) and the ‘junk bond’ premium (spread between BAA- and AAA-rated bonds). Moreover, by assessing the transmission of international shocks to the carbon market, carbon prices tend to respond negatively to an exogenous recessionary shock on global economic indicators. In consequence, for investments managers, carbon assets such as EUA appear to be well-suited for portofolio diversification since they do not match exactly the business cycle.

Understanding the link between macroeconomic environment and the EU carbon price Download
To learn more
  • 06/13/2024 Blog post Foreword of the week
    After Bonn and towards COP 29: the battle on finance and the role of financing plans for the transition

    Tense climate negotiations just ended in Bonn with limited progress on finance and the revised climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. During the opening ceremony of the sixtieth sessions of the subsidiary bodies (SB 60) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Simon Stiell –Executive Secretary– highlighted the need to “make serious progress on finance, the great enabler of climate action” and to aim for bolder, broader and inclusive third generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) that “can serve as blueprints to propel economies and societies forward and drive more resilience”.

  • 06/07/2024 Foreword of the week
    EU election time: climate policy and finance challenges under scrutiny

    This weekend, citizens across the EU head to the polls. Many expect a swing to the right, in stark contrast to the “green wave” of 2019. In Brussels, leaders are looking ahead to a five-year mandate dominated by questions of security and competitiveness.  In these turbulent times, what is the future of Europe’s flagship climate package, the Green Deal? The Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package gave us the regulatory framework – but implementation requires investment. I4CE’s flagship EU Climate Investment Deficit report shows that climate spending must double to make the 2030 target achievable.

  • 05/17/2024 Foreword of the week
    Carbon pricing revenues: their role in financing the climate transition

    Last month, the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Simon Stiell, stressed how important this and next year are for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and called for “a quantum leap in climate finance” ahead of the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund. Indeed, with emissions required to peak before 2025, our window of opportunity is rapidly closing to keep 1.5°C within reach. More and better finance is urgently needed. Carbon pricing policies and their revenues are part of the tools available that can help fill the climate finance gap.

See all publications
Press contact Amélie FRITZ Head of Communication and press relations Email
Subscribe to our mailing list :
I register !
Subscribe to our newsletter
Once a week, receive all the information on climate economics
I register !