EU ETS: estimate free allocation for industry by 2030 with the I4CE’s simulation tool

7 July 2017 - Blog post - By : Charlotte VAILLES

Three steps to understand the implications of the EU ETS reform on free allocation

In the debates on the post-2020 EU ETS reform, the issue of carbon leakage and of the competitiveness of EU industries has been calling particular attention.

I4CE has built a simulation tool to estimate the EU ETS free allocation in Phase IV (2021-2030) according to different parameters discussed in the current trilogue negotiations between the EU Parliament, the EU Council and the EU Commission. Trilogue negotiations started in April 2017 and will probably go on after the summer 2017.

Estimate the amount of free allocation by selecting your values of five parameters and see whether the application of a cross-sectoral correction factor (CSCF) is necessary in Phase IV to adjust the total free allocation to the free allocation cap.

Follow the 3 steps to understand the implications of the EU ETS reform on free allocation

I4CE Contacts

Charlotte VAILLES

Research Fellow – Financing a fair transition Email

To learn more

03/19/2026
Public funding for the wood sector : what contribution to climate objectives?

This study reviews recent public funding directed towards the downstream of the forest-wood sector and assesses how it contributes to climate mitigation and adaptation. Its objective is to inform better targeting of public support in a context of tightening budget constraints.
03/18/2026 Blog post
Reinforcing Europe’s carbon sink through actionable levers

Since 2005, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been a cornerstone of Europe’s climate policy. With the price per tonne of CO2 now beginning to stabilise at between €60 and €80, and the gradual reduction in free allowances, 2026’s review of the system should be an opportunity to reflect on and upgrade its performance as the EU continues towards climate neutrality.
03/06/2026 Foreword of the week
Stay the course: why a stronger ETS is the key to industrial competitiveness

Since 2005, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been a cornerstone of Europe’s climate policy. With the price per tonne of CO2 now beginning to stabilise at between €60 and €80, and the gradual reduction in free allowances, 2026’s review of the system should be an opportunity to reflect on and upgrade its performance as the EU continues towards climate neutrality.

EU ETS: estimate free allocation for industry by 2030 with the I4CE’s simulation tool

Three steps to understand the implications of the EU ETS reform on free allocation

Charlotte VAILLES

Public funding for the wood sector : what contribution to climate objectives?

Reinforcing Europe’s carbon sink through actionable levers

Stay the course: why a stronger ETS is the key to industrial competitiveness