Publications

Assessment of supply-demand balance for Kyoto offsets (CERs and ERUs) up to 2020

29 June 2011 - Special issues - By : Nicolas STEPHAN / Alain CORMIER / Benoît LEGUET

By Anaïs DELBOSC, Nicolas STEPHAN, Valentin BELLASSEN, Alain CORMIER et Benoît LEGUET

The purpose of this document is to estimate the supply and potential demand as regards Kyoto carbon credits (CER and ERU) up to 2020. Two distinct periods have been pinpointed: 2008-2012, the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and 2013-2020, the phase when the climate-energy package will be implemented in Europe, and the period for compliance with international commitments agreed in Cancún.

Demand for Kyoto credits is estimated at between 2.2 and 4.4 billion for the 2008- 2020 period. The large spread reflects 1) uncertainty about the size of European demand (EU ETS and Member States), which could rise from 1.3 to 2.2 billion credits if Europe’s 2020 emissions reduction target were increased from 20% to 30%; and 2) uncertainties regarding the use of Kyoto credits by other actors. The estimate of Kyoto credit supply by CDC Climat Research is 1.3 billion between now and 2013 (1.1 billion in CER and 0.2 billion in ERU). By 2020, Kyoto projects could generate up to 4 billion credits.

All in all, we estimate that the credit market will be in deficit by 2013 and should be in surplus by 2020, unless there is an increased European commitment, or new sources of demand appear throughout the world.

Assessment of supply-demand balance for Kyoto offsets (CERs and ERUs) up to 2020 Download
I4CE Contacts
Benoît LEGUET
Benoît LEGUET
Managing Director Email
To learn more
  • 05/21/2025
    OPEN LETTER: Cleantech R&I must sit at the heart of the EU’s Competitiveness Agenda

    With Member States meeting this week to discuss the progress and future of EU R&I funding at the Competitiveness Council a group of civil society, research and cleantech organisations, including I4CE, have today issued an open letter urging EU policymakers to put clean technology research and innovation (R&I) at the centre of the bloc’s long-term […]

  • 04/22/2025 Blog post
    Planning for the cost of climate action: a practical guide for local governments

    Local authorities play a leading role in ecological planning. As major contributors to public investment they have core responsibilities that can significantly accelerate the transition, such as expanding public transport networks or retrofitting public buildings for energy efficiency. According to I4CE, in France, local authorities in France need to double their investments in decarbonization by 2030 -without even accounting for future adaptation costs.

  • 04/10/2025
    Transition plans and remuneration policies: what are the challenges for financial actors?

    Integrating climate indicators into variable remuneration is a burning issue. Although it was removed at the last minute from negotiations on the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), the proposal is still very much alive in the policy debate . While the topic is becoming increasingly central to remuneration in large companies, it still appears to be a taboo within the banking sector. This requirement was already included in the European Central Bank’s supervisory guidelines as early as 2020, yet it appears to have been largely neglected by banks.

See all publications
Press contact Amélie FRITZ Head of Communication and press relations Email
Subscribe to our mailing list :
I register !
Subscribe to our newsletter
Once a week, receive all the information on climate economics
I register !
Fermer