EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – Understanding transition scenarios Eight steps for reading and interpreting these scenarios

The 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4) in Seville represents a milestone for delivering on development (including climate action) goals, a decade after the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The “Seville Commitment” was adopted on June 30th, albeit in the absence of the United States – demonstrating that widespread support remains for a comprehensive package to finance development. However, the outcome also embodies the growing chasm between high-level commitments and the reality of financing for development and climate action on the ground. Recent research by I4CE attempts to bridge this gap on two crucial issues. 

As climate finance debates evolve from pledges to implementation, this report critically reviews the methodologies and narratives behind existing climate financing needs estimates to examine how they might be used to guide practical efforts in the years to come, and where the most urgent improvements are needed. From headline trillions to actual millions, the challenge ahead is not just about determining how much is missing – the focus should be on closing this gap in practice.