EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – Understanding transition scenarios Eight steps for reading and interpreting these scenarios

Emmanuel Macron certainly made a mistake in calling for a European “regulatory pause” on the environment. In the same speech, he however expressed a truth that is essential to the debate: “Europe and France risk being the best-in-class in terms of regulation, and the worst-in-class in terms of financing”. It went unnoticed but, as highlighted in this I4CE newsletter, the time has come for a debate on how the EU can better finance the climate transition. And there is no time like the present! In precisely one year, on June 9th 2024, hundreds of millions of Europeans will vote for a new European Parliament, that will in term elect a new European Commission that will negotiate the future EU budget.

How much should France invest in climate action ? Experts from diverse backgrounds have sought to answer this important and seemingly simple question. They agree that France needs to invest more to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. But they differ on the scale of public and private funding needs, which range from €20 to €100 billion a year. Is this a cause for concern? Not really, because the experts are not counting the same thing. These differences can be explained and should not be used as an excuse for inaction.

How does the government plan to finance the increase in its public spending on climate action? Further to the government’s reactions to the Pisani-Ferry report, which proposes using all options, including debt and tax increases, let us make an assumption: what if the government were to rely solely on budget saving options? I4CE’s Damien Demailly reviews the savings options available to the government. Clearly, they are all difficult to implement and some may prove counterproductive. They are nevertheless on the government’s agenda and are worth explaining and discussing, as are all options to finance the transition.