Doha opens partway the door to shift to –25% for the EU

This report, originally published in French in September 2025, is first a contribution to the public debate on adaptation in France. The methodologies applied, the data collection process, as well as the analytical framework proposed, may inform broader discussions in Europe, as the preparations for an EU integrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management are well underway. 

An outlook on EU investment needs for the energy transition and the EU’s 2040 climate target. Just before the start of COP30 in Belém, EU Member States agreed to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% in 2040 compared to 1990 levels, including a 5% flexibility through international carbon credits. 

The upcoming food sovereignty conferences are likely to shape debates on the future of French agriculture in 2026. The main responses provided over the past two years can be summarised as follows: remove production constraints to produce more of everything (both animal and plant products), to recover market shares in France and abroad. Seeking to produce more of everything without considering adaptation or transition is a form of denial, at a time when climate change is hitting farmers hard and regularly, and when our dependence on imported fertilisers and oilseed meals undermines our sovereignty. The conferences must take these considerations into account — otherwise, they will serve only to perpetuate the notion of an illusory sovereignty.