EU ETS: estimate free allocation for industry by 2030 with the I4CE’s simulation tool

2025 begins with a new French government and a new budget debate, but with the same challenge as last year: how to reduce the deficit without putting the brakes on investment in the climate transition? Climate investments are the best investments we can make, according to the new Minister of Economy Éric Lombard. He’s right: any delay weakens our energy security and our position in the international race for cleantech, not to mention the pace of decarbonisation of our economy.

Translating innovation into world-leading industries is critical, and FP10, the EU’s next flagship R&D funding programme after Horizon Europe concludes, offers a chance to bridge this gap. The Green Deal era saw Europe embrace ‘Cleantech 2.0’, with record investments and new projects. Yet 2024 has brought a reckoning. Slowing demand in sectors like heat pumps and electric cars, Chinese industrial overcapacity, and attractive subsidies in the US and Canada have left European cleantech struggling to compete. Closures, layoffs, and stalled projects – including the high-profile collapse of Swedish battery maker Northvolt – have shaken the sector. The EU’s Net Zero Industry Act and the upcoming Clean Industrial Deal aim to support cleantech manufacturing, but catching up isn’t enough. To lead globally, the EU must focus on the next wave, including new battery chemistries and next-gen renewables – ‘Cleantech 3.0.’

As the European economy decarbonizes, economic assets across sectors are at risk of stranding or repricing from transition pressures. Yet private financial institutions, particularly banks, often narrowly focus on fossil fuel credit losses using historical data, underestimating broader ‘whole of economy’ stranding risks. Risk mitigation in the form of prudential capital buffers and loss provisions […]