Very few companies make good use of scenarios to anticipate their climate-constrained future

13 February 2019 - Climate Brief - By : Charlotte VAILLES / Clément METIVIER

Climate change induces disruptions of our ecosystems, and the transition to a low-carbon economy significantly affects the political, economic and social landscapes. Businesses have to adapt to those changes, which entails risks and opportunities. Some changes are already visible today, but the deepest changes are expected to materialize over the mid to long term, and there is a lot of uncertainty around their timing and magnitude. In this context, the use of forward-looking scenarios is particularly useful to evaluate the resilience of a business to climate-related risks, and it is recommended by the Task-Force on Climate-related financial disclosures (TCFD) set up by the Financial Stability Board (FSB).


This Climate Brief gives an overview of the degree of implementation of climate-related scenario analysis to evaluate risks and opportunities, based on the answers of a sample of 2,003 companies to CDP 2017 Climate Change questionnaire. The analysis shows that:


  • Only 5% of companies indicate using scenario analysis to evaluate their climate-related risks and opportunities;
  • Half of these companies are based in Europe;
  • The use of climate-related scenario analysis is much more common among oil and gas companies and energy utilities than in other sectors of activity;
  • Among companies that disclose carrying out a scenario analysis of their transition risks : about 40% indicate using tailored scenarios, in general internally designed and modelled, and only half explicitly mention using a 2°C or more ambitious scenario;
  • Among companies that disclose carrying out a scenario analysis of their physical risks : about 25% indicate using external scenarios and tools, in most cases those put together by the IPCC;
  • Overall, there seems to be confusions in the way climate-related scenarios are understood and used, and a need for guidance on this topic has been identified.


This publication will be followed by additional work on climate-related scenario analysis over the course of 2019, which will be publicly available.


This research is part of the Reimagining Disclosure Project, led by CDP, and supported by Climate-KIC.



Very few companies make good use of scenarios to anticipate their climate-constrained future Download
See appendices
I4CE Contacts
Charlotte VAILLES
Charlotte VAILLES
Project Manager – Energy transition and Public finance Email
To learn more
  • 03/24/2023 Foreword of the week
    International Day of Forests: carbon certification, adaptation and carbon sink

    This week, for the International Day of Forests, I4CE offers you an overview of the forestry issues that are being debated in France and in Brussels. In our newsletter, you will discover a new blog post by Julia Grimault on European carbon certification and our latest analyses on the adaptation of French forests to climate change, the French carbon sink and the wood industry. 

  • 03/21/2023 Blog post Op-ed
    European Carbon Certification: the unlikely alliance

    The future European carbon certification framework is under intense debate. The first meeting of the expert group in charge of supporting the Commission has raised criticisms on the composition and mandate of this group, and the discussions have taken an unexpected turn by achieving the feat of bringing NGOs and CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) industrialists to an agreement against natural carbon sinks, those of our forests or our agricultural soils. Where does this unlikely alliance come from?

  • 03/17/2023 Foreword of the week
    Net Zero Industry Act: Europe in the race for cleantech

    The European Union still has a lot of work to do. Yesterday the European Commission published its Net Zero Industry Act, a piece of its response to the American Inflation Reduction Act, a necessary but still insufficient building block to keep the European Union in global cleantech race. It will also have to complete a number of directives and regulations to deliver its Green Deal. The EU election in 2024 is fast approaching, time is of the essence. 

See all publications
Press contact Amélie FRITZ Head of Communication and press relations Email
Subscribe to our mailing list :
I register !
Subscribe to our newsletter
Once a week, receive all the information on climate economics
I register !